These two countries account for one-third of humanity. Both of their economies are on fire. Both have a rising middle class. Both are witnessing massive foreign investment, as Western firms look outside of their home countries for profits (something Coke and tobacco companies have been doing for decades.) Millions of Indians and Chinese have been lifted out of poverty.
It’s amazing that a decade ago they were placed in the same sentence. China is racing ahead of India economical and militarily. “China is a brutal place to live if you are on the bottom rung but there is an exit,” said a man in Beijing. Not so in India. India has 10 million manufacturing jobs compared with 150 million in China. India has a sophisticated service sector, but that’s only useful if you are an educated, English speaking, urban Indian. What jobs are there for Indians?
The Chinese government has delivered on basic services and provisions—social mobility, jobs, education and health care. This is what you care about from the bottom rung. India’s chaotic democracy is chaotic and deadlocked, whereas China’s top down, autocracy works at lightning speed, which explains why China’s infrastructure is decades ahead of China and why India is painfully behind in its preparation for the 2010 Asian Games in New Delhi.
Per capita income is double in China, and its life expectancy is lower. Indians are twice as likely to lose a child before the age five. Ninety-three percent literacy in China, compared to sixty percent of Indians who can read (worse for women).
The U.S. is standing behind India and its messy democracy. It hopes it will balance China’s rise.
In the short-term, China is in the lead. Its autocratic system works well at this point in its economic development, when things need to get done. But it faces massive pressure from its people, to keep the machine going, to hold it all together. What if things fall apart, what about China’s long term prospects, can it be both prosperous and free? India’s people may be stifled materially right now, but they are not intellectually sheltered like the Chinese. There is a robust free press in India and deep bridges to the outside world and the support of Washington. Media after all acts as a watchdog; there are no checks and balances on Beijing. One wrong step and there could be one hundred million peasants on Tiananmen Square.
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